Study shows - sun may be setting on suburban sprawl

 Report on housing trends in California - relevant because Cali is often first in the US and influential continent-wide.

From NRDC blog by Amanda Eaken:

A new study issued today by the Urban Land Institute confirms what many of us living in California already know--sprawl has had its heyday, and more and more people are choosing to live closer to where they work and play. The study finds that Generations X and Y--which will dominate market demand in the coming decades-- don't want to live in far flung housing developments that require a car and long commutes to work, school or to run errands.  

By comparing 2010 supply of different housing types to 2035 projected demand in Calfiornia's four largest regions--Sacramento, the Bay Area, Southern California, which includes Los Angeles, and San Diego-- the report makes some stunning observations about the direction future growth should take to help the housing market recover.

The two bottom line findings that every journalist, planner, economist, homebuilder, developer and financier should be aware of are as follows:

First, the existing supply—that’s right, today’s stock—of conventional lot (> 1/8th acre) single-family detached homes exceeds the projected demand for these homes in 2035.This finding is of such consequence that it merits a pause and repeat: California’s largest regions – Sacramento, the Bay Area, Southern California and San Diego--already have more large lot, single family homes than will be needed in 2035.Thus, expanding the supply of this housing type would be in excess of both current and projected demand, and could hurt the chances for a housing market recovery.

Complete article infographics & all...